Dubov Needs 100 Wins, a Club Player Needs Just Half a Point

The most interesting thing about this match is the scoring, not the players. Josh Smith, a 49-year-old Arizona businessman rated in the 1800s by US Chess, is set to play GM Daniil Dubov in 100 bullet games. The handicap is built into the payout rather than the clock.

How the money works

Dubov is guaranteed $10,000. Another $10,000 is his only if he wins every one of the 100 games. A single draw or win for Smith cuts Dubov to $10,000, and even a 99.5-0.5 result costs him the bonus.

The event, called the 100-0 Project by The Bullet Grandpa, takes place on November 7. Each player gets one minute per game with no increment. Smith and Dubov discussed time odds, but Smith preferred equal pieces and equal time, saying the winning condition supplies the handicap.

Why Dubov thinks he is the underdog

On paper this looks lopsided. Dubov is a former world rapid champion, ranked fifth among the world’s highest-rated blitz players, with a bullet rating above 3000 and a personal best of 3136. Smith’s Chess.com account, BulletGrandpa, set a 2579 bullet peak on October 6.

Dubov doesn’t buy the gap as decisive. In his interview with podcaster Greg Mustreader he opened with a joke: “It takes a lot of talent to lose 100 games in a row.” He put Smith’s bullet level at around candidate master and conceded that Smith has “way more” online bullet games behind him.

Dubov also pointed to connection problems and mouse slips as ways for Smith to escape. “He only needs half a point,” he said. “I think he’s a massive favorite not to lose 100 in a row.”

Smith’s approach

Smith says he has played more than 250,000 bullet games over 30 years and calls himself “completely addicted.” He does not expect to win the match. “Not good. Not good at all,” he said of his chances, and he added: “I know I’m going to lose the majority of the time, the vast majority of the time. But there’s the opportunity.”

His method is to aim for solid positions that allow quick decisions, and to build a defensive “bunker” that is hard to crack in a minute. He keeps stalemate tricks and flag chances alive even when down material. “Bullet is not finding the best move. It’s about finding good moves fast,” he said.

The evidence so far

Smith has had occasional hits against titled players. Against his coach, GM Kayden Troff, his Chess.com record at the time of the interview was six wins, three draws and 151 losses. That is roughly a 4 percent win rate, but it is not zero.

Over 100 games, that matters. If Smith dropped only one game in fifty against Dubov, the chance of a clean 100-0 sweep would be about one in eight. Dubov is a different opponent from Troff, and perhaps a stronger one at this speed, but the arithmetic shows why he is wary.

Dubov also respected the stakes for Smith. “I think he has the guts and the mental strength to do it,” he said of Smith accepting a possible public 100-0 loss. Smith’s own hope is modest: “Maybe a grandpa can beat a grandmaster.”