Kasparov Leans Toward Gukesh, Nakamura and Carlsen Back Sindarov

The Salesforce FIDE World Championship 2026 in Geneva is two weeks away, and the chess world has mostly made up its mind. In a roundup of predictions from Chess.com, most strong players give challenger Javokhir Sindarov the edge, though few go as far as a landslide. The one notable exception on the experience side is Garry Kasparov.

The gap on paper

Sindarov is rated 2782 and ranked fourth. Gukesh Dommaraju is at 2710 and 26th, the lowest ranking of any player in a world championship match. That is 72 rating points and 22 places apart, as the November FIDE list shows.

The closest comparison is Gukesh’s own win over Ding Liren in 2024, when the gap was 55 points and 18 places in the champion’s favor. Ding came within one late blunder of forcing tiebreaks.

Since the title was unified in 2008, nobody ranked lower than fifth has won the match. For a primer on what such gaps predict, see what a chess rating actually measures.

Kasparov’s contrarian lean

Kasparov spoke in Antwerp at Your Next Move 2026, as reported by Sportinantwerpen. He said that, like Magnus Carlsen, he had been “fiercely critical” of Gukesh, and that this still stands. Even so, he gives the champion “a slightly better chance.”

His reasoning is experience: “It is not important how long you prepare for a match; experience is usually the deciding factor.” He called Gukesh a defensive player, like a tennis player who stays on the baseline, and added that if Sindarov takes the lead, Gukesh “might just be able to beat him.”

Nakamura, Carlsen and Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura, speaking on commentary at the U.S. Championships, said he struggles to see Sindarov not winning. He expects a match won “very cleanly, like Magnus did against Anand in 2013.”

If it is close, he thinks Gukesh takes it. He sees nothing in Gukesh’s last year and a half to suggest a sudden jump.

That is a change of tone. After the Candidates, Nakamura said Gukesh would “surprise people” if he found his earlier form and drowned out the noise.

Carlsen was blunter. After the Candidates he said “it’s impossible not to say Sindarov,” and later called Sindarov a “pretty significant favorite.” He said Gukesh’s evaluations are “way too optimistic,” which leads him to take more chances than he should.

Fabiano Caruana said “Javokhir,” but warned that people are putting very high odds on a player who is “super-hot at the moment.” He still expects it to be “very close.”

The cooler voices

Peter Svidler put it at 55:45 for Sindarov. “For these matches, 60 is already very high,” he said. He also offered a view on style: today’s players grew up with engines, so dynamic chess comes more naturally to them than positional chess.

Praggnanandhaa, whom Svidler seconded at the Candidates, says 50:50. He pointed to his own Norway Chess turnaround, from doubts after round six to the title four days later. He also noted that nobody knows how Sindarov will handle the pressure of a first title match.

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Alireza Firouzja also said 50:50, and Levy Rozman gave Sindarov 55:45. Anish Giri, Divya Deshmukh, Faustino Oro, Juan Manuel Bellon Lopez and Anna Cramling all lean to Sindarov. Pia Cramling picked Gukesh “because I’ve played him,” Viswanathan Anand said “I’ll root for Gukesh,” and Andrea Botez also chose the champion.

Reading the split

The skeptics of the favorite have a pattern. Kasparov, Svidler and Praggnanandhaa all stress that a single match behaves differently from a tournament, and Praggnanandhaa adds that Sindarov has never felt the pressure of a title match. The confident voices, Carlsen and Nakamura, are mostly judging recent form and understanding.

Svidler also admitted to a personal stake. A fellow gamer, he is happy that Sindarov loves Counter-Strike, and hopes the challenger keeps a work-life balance and wins. That, he joked, would “retrospectively slightly justify my life choices.”

For more on the commentary team, see who will be on the mic in Geneva.